Invalidation of early-phase transmission as an epizootic and epidemiological theory

Dear colleagues,

New plague research has just been published with particular importance for the discussion of the early-phase transmission and transmission by proventricular blockage. B.J. Hinnebusch, Senior Investigator at the Laboratory of Zoonotic Pathogens, NIH, NIAID, Rocky Mountain Laboratories, has long been one of the sharpest critics of the early-phase theory of transmission, see, for instance, his article “Biofilm-Dependent and Bio-Film-Independent Mechanisms of using Transmission of Yersinia pestis by Fleas”, Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology, 954; 2012:  237‒243. In these days, he publishes with co-authors an evidently crucial article on this topic: Hinnebusch, B.J. Bland, D.M., Bosio, C.F., Jarrett, C.O., “Comparative Ability of Oropsylla montana and Xenopylla cheopis Fleas to transmitt Yersinia pestis by two Different Mechanisms” PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases | DOI: 10…1371/journal.pntd.0005276 January 12, 2017: 1-15.

They used fleas of Oropsylla montana provided by two of the central advocates of the early-phase theory, which excludes that different strains of this flea could affect the outcome. The conventional vector of plague ‘par excellence’, Xenopsylla cheopis, was used for comparison. Contrary to earlier assertions by the advocates of the early-phase theory that Oropsylla montana rarely develop proventricular blockage, it was shown to block earlier and surviving longer after becoming blocked than X. Cheopis, and that transmission by blockage was as good as or better than observed for X. cheopis. This (re)confirmed earlier research on the vector capacity of this species of flea (see, e.g., the fully referenced comments in my monograph The Black Death and Later Plague Epidemic in the Scandinavian Countries, 2016: 377, 403, 630, 658).

In this article, the early-phase theory is dismantled as an important or significant means or mechanism of transmission of plague. In a personal communication by email of 01.03.17, Hinnebusch states that “In fact, I think early-phase transmission only has a role in very special circumstances, such as during an epizootic of plague in a dense [rodent] population that is both highly susceptible (LD50< 10) and that routinely develops very high bacteremia levels (>108 to 109 Y. pestis/ml) before death.  High flea density is also a likely precondition, as intermittent challenges from just a few fleas at a time would frequently lead to resistance rather than productive, transmissible disease (bacteremia).”

This also means that early-phase transmission is of no significance in plague epidemics, except perhaps, at the individual level, the occasional transmission of immunity-inducing tiny doses of plague bacteria (that will be easily dealt with by the human immune apparatus). It will also become clear that Hinnebusch et al. corroborate and deepen earlier plague research: it is pointed out that this type of early-phase transmission was identified by the Indian Plague Research Commission (IPRC) in 1907 and that the pioneering studies of Bacot of the IPRC on blockage in fleas IPRC 1914 and 1915, are still tenable and relevant. The bibliography contains studies from the entire 1900s, not least 1940s, which have kept their value as fine research.

Finally, I will point out that my recently published monograph contains a long study of early-phase transmission in Chapter 12: 625-655 (with bibliographic references included in the General Bibliography). Its conclusions and basic analysis agree with this recent study by Hinnebusch et al.

Kind regards,

Ole J. Benedictow,

Emeritus Professor

Ole Benedictow – Introduction & new publication

Dear all,

My monograph The Black Death and Later Plague Epidemics in the Scandinavian Countries: Perspectives and Controversies, Berlin: De Greuter, pp. 736, has just appeared: it is published in hardcover edition and also on the Internet in the form of Open access, De Greuter Open, https://www.degruyter.com/viewbooktoc/product/212904 . The book provides much new work on the Black Death, but also translations of works that so far has not been available in English. It also contains several long chapters that relate thoroughly to questions and controversies with respect to the presence of black rats in the Nordic countries (pp. 395-451 with three maps), transmission and dissemination by human ectoparasites, and the early-phase transmission theory or hypothesis rather (as long its advocates cannot explain how pathogenic doses of plague bacteria in the foregut of fleas are moved into a new bite site against the strong stream of a new blood meal).

This involves also the gathering together and presentation of all data on plague bacteraemia in rats and human beings to clarify their potential roles as sources of infection of feeding fleas and lice, the prevalence of bacteremia in rats and human beings measured as number of plague bacteria per mL (mm3) of blood, the volume of blood fleas or lice ingest (µL), and, thus, the potential role of human ectoparasites and rat fleas in the transmission and dissemination of plague bacteria. Finally, there is discussion of border values of Lethal Doses of transmission in the case of human beings and the presence and conditions for transmission of LDs of plague bacteria. There are also studies of the pattern, rhythm and seasonality of the spread of plague epidemics as reflections of and, thus, sources of information on the processes of transmission and dissemination.

The introductory general chapter on plague contains also two specific subchapters that really are lengthy articles. In Chapter 1.5, all paleobiological data on finds of aDNA or F1 antigen of Y. pestis in putative plague graves are gathered together with a comprehensive presentation of the research history and achievements of the new discipline of paleobiology in plague-related research, pp. 73-99. Chapter 1.4, reverts to the topic of alternative theories of plague, in this case an epidemiological alternative, which so far has not been addressed seriously and critically: ‘Serious Plague History under Pressure: The Twelfth Theory of Historical Plague. Comments on the Recent paper “Climate-driven Introductions of the Black Death and Successive Plague Reintroductions into Europe”, pp. 35-72. The relevant points on the role of human ectoparasites in the epidemiology of plague are discussed in the chapters mentioned above.

I will be grateful for all critical and supplementary reactions, which can come to good use now that my English publisher has asked me to write a 2nd edn. of my monograph on the Black Death and I am working on it to the hilt. This is also the case with respect to my previous monograph What Disease was Plague? On the Controversy over the Microbiological Identity of Plague Epidemics of the Past, Leiden: Brill , pp. 746.

Happy New Year to all,

Ole J. Benedictow
Emeritus Professor,
Department of History,
University of Oslo

EAA Vilnius 2016: Session report on “Plague in diachronic and interdisciplinary perspective”

The following session report by Doris Gutsmiedl-Schümann (Freie Universität Berlin, Germany), Sacha Kacki (Université de Bordeaux, France), Marcel Keller (MPI-SHH Jena, Germany) and Christina Lee (University of Nottingham, UK) will be published in The European Archaeologist. With kind permission of the EAA.

Edit 17-02-07: filmed talks are now linked under the respective name.

logo

Plague, an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, occurred in at least three major historical pandemics: the Justinianic Plague (6th to 8th century), the Black Death (1348-1352, with further epidemic outbreaks until the 18th century), and the Modern or Hong Kong Plague (19th to 20th century). However, it appears that the disease may be much older: DNA from Bronze Age human skeleton has recently shown that plague first emerged at least as early as 3000 BC. As any disease, plague has both a biological as well as a social dimension. Different disciplines can therefore explicate different aspects of plague which can lead to a better understanding of the disease and its medical and social implications.

The session was held on 2nd September 2016 as part of the 22nd Annual Meeting of the EAA with the aim of bringing together researchers from different disciplines who work on plague. It addressed a series of research questions, such as:

  • Which disciplines can contribute to the research on plague?
  • What are their methodological possibilities and the limitations of their methodologies?
  • How can different disciplines work together in order to gain a more realistic and detailed picture of plague in different periods and regions?
  • How did different societies react to plague? In which way may we prove or disprove evidence for such reactions – and which disciplines may contribute to the debate?
  • What where the common aspects, and what the differences of the various plague outbreaks? Are there any epidemiological characteristics that are essential and/or unique to plague?
  • What are possible implications of the pandemic spread and endemic occurrence of plague through the ages for the interpretation of historical and cultural phenomena?

Continue reading

Introduction – Marcel Keller

I am a PhD student in the department Archaeogenetics of the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History in Jena, Germany. My academic background is Biology (B.Sc./M.Sc.) with specialization in Anthropology and Human Biology. The main project of my PhD is the reconstruction of genomes of Yersinia pestis of both the first (Justinianic Plague) and second pandemic (following the Black Death) in Europe. Additional ancient genomes of Y. pestis are crucial for phylogenetic analyses and allow a more detailed picture of the spatiotemporal distribution of plague.

The European Black Death as the Source of Ancient and Modern Plague Pandemics

Again a study on the genetic history of the plague.

Rainer Schreg

archaeologist researcher at Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz - lecturer at Tübingen university

More Posts - Website

Introduction – Giuseppe Muci

I’m an archaeologist and third-year PhD candidate in Science for Cultural Heritage at the University of Salento (Lecce, in southern Italy). My main fields of interest are landscape and settlement pattern changes in southern Italy from the Late Antique to the Early Modern period, with a specific focus on the transition between Late Medieval and Modern times. In my analyses of socio-economic dynamics I’m trying to link demographic data mainly collected from fiscal sources and settlements data collectet through archaological surveys in the region; the final aim is to understand if subsistence crises could have played a main role in the 14th century demographic decline . In addition to historical and archaological dataset, I make use of quantitative methods and GIS theoretical modelling to analyse human dynamics and settlement trends. On my Academia.edu page you can find a pair of papers focused on the analysis of demographic trends and agrarian sustainability during the Late Middle Ages in Terra d’Otranto province (https://unisalento.academia.edu/GiuseppeMuci).

gmuci

Medieval archaeologist and PhD Fellow in “Science for Cultural Heritage” at the University of Salento, Italy.

More Posts - Website

Follow Me:
TwitterFacebookFlickr

A time of crises: a 14th c. timeline

Nothing new, and no deep analysis, but nevertheless an overview of some events and crises:

Rainer Schreg

archaeologist researcher at Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz - lecturer at Tübingen university

More Posts - Website

The Bronze Age Plague

A new study refers to the presence of yersinia pestis in Europe during the late neolithic/early bronze age:

  • Simon Rasmussen/ Morten Erik Allentoft/ Kasper Nielsen/ Ludovic Orlando/ Martin Sikora/ Karl-Göran Sjögren/ Anders Gorm Pedersen/ Mikkel Schubert/ Alex Van Dam/ Christian Moliin Outzen Kapel/ Henrik Bjørn Nielsen/ Søren Brunak/ Pavel Avetisyan/ Andrey Epimakhov/ Mikhail Viktorovich Khalyapin/ Artak Gnuni/ Aivar Kriiska/ Irena Lasak/ Mait Metspalu/ Vyacheslav Moiseyev/ Andrei Gromov/ Dalia Pokutta/ Lehti Saag/ Liivi Varul/ Levon Yepiskoposyan/ Thomas Sicheritz-Pontén/ Robert A. Foley/ Marta Mirazón Lahr/ Rasmus Nielsen/ Kristian Kristiansen/ Eske Willerslev: Early Divergent Strains of Yersinia pestis in Eurasia 5,000 Years Ago. Cell 163/3, 2015, 571–582 (22.10.2015). – DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2015.10.009 – open access!

If these hypothesis of a y.p. as a major trigger of the cultural and demographic changes at the end of the neolithic can be verified, comparisons with the 14th c. crisis will be of some interest. Prehistoric archaeology should check for indications e.g. of wheather extremes, the reorganisation of land use practices and increasing soil erosion in the time before the outbreak of the plague. Furthermore it should be tested, whether the health of the population was probably weak at that time.   However, by now neither the chronological nor the spatial framework of this postulated outbreak is clear.

 

Link

Rainer Schreg

archaeologist researcher at Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz - lecturer at Tübingen university

More Posts - Website

A yet unknown reservoir of yersinia pestis in Europe

A new study provides data on long-term presence of yersinia pestis from 14th c. onwards by using analysis of ancient DNA (aDNA). The study is based on two different sites in Germany, spanning a time period of more than 300 years. One of them is the 14th c. mass grave at the St. Leonhard church in Manching-Pichl, which is still an extraordinary site in Germany. Of 30 tested skeletons 8 were positive for Yersinia pestis-specific nucleic acid. As there are some significant similarities between the y.p. evidence with other European findings, the authors conclude, that “beside the assumed continuous reintroduction of Y. pestis from central Asia in multiple waves during the second pandemic, long-term persistence of Y. pestis in Europe in a yet unknown reservoir host has also to be considered.”

In order to understand the 14th c. crisis it will be interesting to see whether their model in which Yersinia pestis “was introduced to Europe from Asia in several waves combined with a long-time persistence of the pathogen in not yet identified reservoirs” is also valid for the time between the 6th and the 14th c. as this has some consequences in understanding possible interaction between landscape changes, extreme weather and the Black Death.

 

Rainer Schreg

archaeologist researcher at Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz - lecturer at Tübingen university

More Posts - Website

EAA Vilnius 2016: Plague in diachronic and interdisciplinary perspective – CfP

Call for Paper for the Annual Meeting of the European Association of Archaeologist in Vilnius 31.8.-4.9.2016

http://eaavilnius2016.lt/

logo

Plague, an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, occurred in at least three major historical pandemics: the Justinianic Plague (6th to 8th century), the Black Death (from 14th century onwards), and the modern or Hong Kong Plague (19th to 20th century).Yet DNA from bronze age human skeleton has recently shown that the plague first emerged at least as early as 3000 BC. Plague is, as any disease, both a biological as well as a social entity. Different disciplines can therefore elucidate different aspects of the plague, which can lead to a better understanding of this disease and its medical and social implications.

The session shall address questions like

  • Which disciplines can contribute to the research on the plague? What are their methodological possibilities and limitations?
  • How can they work together in order to come to a more realistic and detailed picture of the
    plague in different times and regions?
  • Which ways had societies to react to the plague? How can they be studied or proved?
  • Which commons and differences can be seen between the Justinianic Plague and later plague epidemics? Are there epidemiological characteristics that are essential and/or unique to plague?
  • What are possible implications of the pandemic spread and endemic occurrence of plague
    through the ages for the interpretation of historical and cultural phenomena?

We would like to invite researchers from the disciplines of archaeology, anthropology, biology, history, medicine and related subjects to present papers in our session.

Abstract nr. TH5-05
Presentation Preference – Regular session (half day)

Author – Gutsmiedl-Schümann, Doris, Universität Bonn, Vor- und Frühgeschichtliche  Archäologie, Bonn, Germany (Presenting author)
Co-author(s) – Kacki, Sacha, Anthropologie des Populations Passées et Présentes, Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
Co-author(s) – Keller, Marcel, Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena,
Germany
Co-author(s) – Lee, Christina, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom

Topic – Science and Interdisciplinarity in Archaeology

Keywords: diachronic perspective, Plague

Rainer Schreg

archaeologist researcher at Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz - lecturer at Tübingen university

More Posts - Website

A Conference at Rome: CfP “The Crisis of the 14th Century”

http://climatehistorynetwork.com/2015/05/14/cfp-workshop-the-crisis-of-the-14th-century-teleconnections-between-environmental-and-societal-change/

in February 2016 at the German Historical institute at Rome.

Conference Summary: The first half of the 14th century, the transition from the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly to the so-called Little Ice Age, is one of the few climatic events indicated about equally well in written and physical source.  The ‘crisis of the 14th century’ has also become an established interpretation for certain developments and problems of late medieval Europe. However, such an interpretation has been criticized by some as a contemporary projection of the crisis-ridden 20th and 21st centuries onto the past.

The conference will focus on the imputed climatic deterioration of the 1300s and its presumed impact on medieval economy, society, environment, and culture.   The organizers are calling for proposals for 30-minute presentations. The conference language will be English. Please submit an abstract of no more than 300 words, along with a short CV, by 30 June 2015 to both Gerrit J. Schenk (Darmstadt University of Technology) at schenk@pg.tu-darmstadt.de and Martin Bauch (German Historical Institute Rome) at bauch@dhi-roma.it  Accommodation during the conference and travel expenses will be covered.

more details.

Rainer Schreg

archaeologist researcher at Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz - lecturer at Tübingen university

More Posts - Website

Introduction and new theses

Hello! My name is Michelle Laughran. I am Associate Professor of History at Saint Joseph’s College of Maine and a historian of the plague and epidemic diseases in Renaissance Venice (https://sjcme.academia.edu/MichelleLaughran). I am thrilled to join the Black Death Network and I look forward to participating in group discussions!

I wanted to inform the group that the latest listing of theses and dissertations by the University of Pittsburgh Health Library Systems has been published, and there are a few entries of potential interest of plague historians… In addition, I also went back through about five years of past issues and dug up other theses relevant to the fourteenth century as well.  Hope they may be useful!

Many thanks for welcoming me and very best wishes, Michelle

Publication #: 3581344
Property, power and patriarchy: The decline of women’s property right in England after the Black Death
Phifer, Michael J., PhD
University of Houston, 2014, 330 pages

Publication #: 3625805
Pestilence and politics: A global history of the Marseille plague
Ermus, Cindy, PhD
Florida State University, 2014, 247 pages

Publication #: 3605732
“Robbed of their Minds”: Madness, Medicine and Society in Southeastern Germany from 1350 to 1500
Koenig, Anne Morgan, PhD
Northwestern University, 2013, 572 pages

Publication #: 3598211
Childless Queens and Child-like Kings: Negotiating Royal Infertility in England, 1382–1471
Geaman, Kristen Lee, PhD
University of Southern California, 2013, 361 pages

Publication #: 3435307
Heaven in a bottle: Franciscan apocalypticism and the elixir, 1250-1360
Matus, Zachary Alexander, PhD
Harvard University, 2010, 245 pages

Publication #: 3423088
The “Carrara Herbal” in context: Imitation, exemplarity, and invention in late fourteenth-century Padua
Kyle, Sarah Rozalja, PhD
Emory University, 2010, 316 pages

Introduction – Joris Roosen

As a first year PhD-candidate, I am working within the “Coordinating for life” project at the University of Utrecht. The project aims to explain why some societies are successful in preventing the effects of major hazards and buffering threats, or in recovering quickly, while others prove highly vulnerable. My specific sub-project focuses on the subject of the Black Death and the recurring waves of plague in late medieval Europe.

My research aims to look at the institutional framework of three regions in order to ascertain why some regions were able to mitigate and recover quickly from the effects of the Black Death whilst others did not.

The regions I will be investigating are coastal Flanders, Picardy and Norfolk.

James le Palmer’s Omne bonum

One of the reasons, why also the BlackDeathNetwork changed its design:
http://arc-medieval.blogspot.ca/2015/03/getting-words-out-and-back-in-what-to.html

The BlackDeathNetwork looks not only on the Black Death, so the picture was not wrong for its intention. However, to avoid misunderstanding, we currently have a picture of a 14th century abandoned village in Southern Germany.

Rainer Schreg

archaeologist researcher at Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz - lecturer at Tübingen university

More Posts - Website